We're still sticking with our original narrative of a larger-ranging triangle being built. My conviction in this idea is growing stronger, as we are starting to break above key levels.
The Triangle Theory
Triangles are rare formations, but we have some evidence supporting this structure. In my previous macro analysis, I mentioned the 200-day moving average, a critical trendsetter on larger time frames.
This average coincides with our potential triangle, reinforcing our thesis. Although we haven't fully developed subwave D, variations within the current triangle suggest that fitting as many simple zigzags as possible is the best approach.
Validating the Current Structure
Our goal is to validate this as a simple ABC structure within the triangle. While triangles can include one complex structure, we don't yet know if this will become complex. For now, we focus on fitting simple zigzags into the triangle, considering scenarios like:
- ABC structures
- Impulse structures
- Potential WXY scenarios
Macro Perspective and Wave Counts
From a macro perspective, creating a series of threes within the triangle is key.
Whether it's a long Wave A, short Wave C, or a flat range, the validation remains intact as long as the structure fits an ABC or zigzag pattern. We might also consider WXY scenarios, fitting them into our triangle.
Diagonal Possibility
Zooming in, we also have the possibility of a diagonal being created. This scenario suggests that we might see stronger short-term moves followed by corrective actions.
Though tricky to count, a diagonal could indicate a wave five being completed, marking the end of the current range since the beginning of 2023's bull run.
Alternative Scenarios
Two alternative scenarios are also worth noting:
- Ambitious One-Two Scenario: This suggests a five-wave move, indicating a deeper Wave 2 followed by a primary Wave 3. This scenario remains bullish, predicting a significant upside in the coming months.
- Bearish Option: While the bearish scenario appears less likely, we must consider it until invalidated. If the range breaks down and we see new lows, this scenario might gain traction.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Bitcoin is currently in a complex but exciting phase. We are dissecting medium time frames and observing how micro time frames develop into broader patterns.
The key is not just if Bitcoin will go up but when. Our primary scenarios include a potential triangle, diagonal, or one-two formation, each suggesting various bullish continuations.