Hello and welcome to another updated article about ICP. Today, we’re seeing some slight upside movement on the ICP chart, with a reaction to the 50% retracement at $7.62.
This could signal the start of a fourth wave, as I mentioned in the previous article. Ideally, we want to see this entire correction finish in the white target range.
Current Scenario
Looking at the microstructure, after wave A topped in March this year at around $20.88, we’ve been observing an ABC structure. This involves three waves down in wave A and three waves up in wave B (which topped in April at around $16.30), and now we’re anticipating the unfolding of wave C. Every C wave is a five-wave move, but if this is a WXY structure, we might not see another low.
Support Zone and Wave Count
The low could be in this support zone since the price in Wave B or Wave 2 reached 50% retracement, which is deep enough for wave 2. However, I need to see a five-wave move-up followed by a three-wave pullback to believe it. Ideally, that first five-wave move should break above $11.11, the nearest resistance area.
An ABC structure is generally more reliable than a WXY structure, so unless the market provides clear evidence that the low is in, I’m watching for another low. This could reach $6.63, $6.00, or even $5.70 in the next decline, which would be wave five of C of two or B.
Short-Term Analysis
On the 1-hour chart, it appears we might be working on a flat correction. We recently broke above a trend line, and some coins are breaking out of local trend lines.
This could be wave C, with the first key resistance level at the 38.2 retracement. Considering this is probably a diagonal pattern, wave four could be aggressive and stretch to $10.25 or $11.00, where the next trend line to watch is located.
Maintaining a Bullish Outlook
I remain skeptical that the low is already in, but we are getting closer to a potential end of this correction. We have clear parameters to watch for both resistance and support levels.
A potential bullish outlook for ICP can be maintained as long as we hold the $4.33 level, which is the 78.6% retracement of the initial rally from March this year. Any wave B or Wave 2 that falls below this level, especially on a sustained basis, becomes unreliable.
Conclusion
Overall, everything is progressing as expected. Nothing unusual is happening, and we’re finally seeing some movement after months of sideways correction. This is the update on ICP, and I hope you found it helpful. If you did, please hit the like button and leave a comment!