Hello and welcome to another Bitcoin update! Today, I want to focus on the shorter time frame and discuss whether we're in a smaller or larger degree wave four.
It appears that the low of this entire correction, which started on June 7th, has not yet been reached.
Recent Developments
I discussed the bigger picture in previous articles, so feel free to check those out for more context. This update is purely intraday.
We observed a decline followed by a bounce from yesterday to today. As mentioned in yesterday's article, the breaking of a key trend line signaled the start of at least a corrective rally.
Resistance and Retracement
The rally reached the resistance area, and in fact, hit the top of this area. Bitcoin's recent wave fours have typically retraced about 50%, and this was indeed reached.
Looking at the microstructure, we may be seeing a small five-wave move. However, this doesn't significantly alter the analysis from the previous article.
Potential Wave Scenarios
Given the extent of the upward move, I'm expecting higher prices. Despite this, we haven't broken above the nearest resistance, so it is possible that wave four has already peaked, and we're in wave five.
Caution is advised with short positions because we're likely close to the end of circle wave three, which should lead to a larger bounce in circle wave four.
Micro Structure and Support Levels
The yellow micro count suggests we're in circle wave four, although the exact wave degree is uncertain. We use Fibonacci levels to track the movement and identify setups.
After the trend line break, we looked for higher prices, and the rally into resistance may be in five waves. This implies higher prices, but I'm not convinced the overall low of the correction is in yet.
The micro support is between $59,149 and $63,850. As long as we're holding this support, I don't expect it to break with the current data.
A larger wave four bounce seems likely, and ideally, we would see a pullback into the orange micro support region, followed by a wave C rally.
Summary and Next Steps
To summarize, we're looking for higher prices against the $59,400 support level. Pay attention to trend lines as they can provide additional resistance. The upper resistance area is between $62,626 and $65,535.
Thank you for reading this Bitcoin update! Stay tuned for further analysis as we monitor these critical levels and wave patterns.