Hello, everyone! Welcome to another update on Bitcoin. Today, we’re diving into the intraday price action as Bitcoin climbs higher and finally reaches a critical resistance area. Let's take a closer look at what's happening.
Current Price Action
Bitcoin is moving higher, and it's now within reach of a significant resistance zone. This level is crucial as it could determine the next big move for Bitcoin.
We've previously discussed the 100% extension target of around $64,000, and Bitcoin seems to be heading in that direction.
Yellow Wave Count and Scenarios
We had two scenarios in mind:
- Direct Move Higher: An ABC pattern leading to higher prices.
- Larger B Wave: This would also result in a rally, pushing prices higher in the short term.
So far, the price action has been supportive of these scenarios, at least in the short term. We're now approaching the 100% extension at $64,000, a key target for the C wave.
Technical Analysis
Trend Line and Fibonacci Levels
- Trend Line: We are nearing the next trend line, but it's not a high-quality trend line as it only touches two points.
- Fibonacci Levels: These are more relevant here. After bottoming in a third wave on June 24th, Bitcoin made five waves up to the high on June 26th, followed by a three-wave correction. Now, we're potentially in a five-wave move up in wave C.
Why Expect Higher Prices?
The initial rally looked like a five-wave move up, followed by a clear three-wave move down. This typically indicates one more high. To predict this, we compare the length of wave A with wave C. The current rally aligns with this analysis.
Support Zone
Bitcoin recently reacted to the wave 2 support zone, starting a third-wave rally. We've now reached the ideal third wave target, and it’s slightly extended.
- Third Wave Target: The 1.38 extension is the first ideal target, but Bitcoin can go higher. It has reached the 1.786 extension. Typically, Bitcoin likes the 1.38 and 1.618 extensions but rarely goes beyond the 200% extension.
Potential Scenarios and Support Levels
- Micro Counting: It’s tricky, but we might be seeing an incomplete move up, ideally reaching another 4-5 pattern. If Bitcoin shoots straight to $64,000, it could form a waxy structure.
- Support Levels: As long as Bitcoin holds above the 50% retracement at $61,178, I can consider this an impulse. The 61.8% retracement at $61,527 is also acceptable, especially in a diagonal pattern.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: Around $64,000, caution is advised, but higher levels are still expected. Breaking above $65,335 would confirm a more bullish scenario, especially if done in five waves.
- Support: As long as Bitcoin stays above the golden ratio level, the trend remains up in the short term. A break below this level would indicate a move down in wave five.
Conclusion
In simple terms, I’m not bearish in the short term. We're still looking for higher prices, ideally towards $64,000. However, it's important to be cautious around these levels. The support area will guide us; a break below it would be the first indication of a trend change.