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Current Market Situation
Let's dive into the current market scenario using the 30-minute chart. Although we've seen some volatility, the overall structure remains intact.
We observe an A-wave moving upwards, followed by a B-wave correction down to Friday's low. Now, the critical question is whether Bitcoin can extend once more.
Potential for Another Low
There’s a possibility that Bitcoin could form another low. The price recently reacted to a micro support area between $61,800 and $62,189.
Despite a small bounce, no substantial movement has occurred yet. We may see another test of this support zone.
Fibonacci and Confluence Levels
In the previous update, we discussed a confluence area of Fibonacci levels and support zones within the $61,800 to $62,220 range.
This area includes the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels, which are typically key targets for wave four in a diagonal pattern. Additionally, the 100% extension level at $62,222 could be reached, suggesting the potential for another low.
Corrective Rally and Potential Extension
The recent rally from the intraday low appears corrective, indicating another low is likely. However, as long as Bitcoin holds above $61,800, there’s still potential for an upward extension.
The structure remains complex, navigating a larger wave of four scenarios.
Trend Lines and Support Zones
I've added a trend line to the chart, which, despite having only two touchpoints, could be significant. If Bitcoin breaks below this trend line and the lower Fibonacci level around $61,800 to $61,830, it becomes more probable that wave four has topped, and we may see another low in wave five.
Wave Patterns: WXY and ABC
This wave four could be morphing into a WXY pattern rather than the initially labeled ABC. While the
C-wave might reach the 100% extension, the pattern doesn’t perfectly fit an ABC structure, leaning more towards a WXY. However, the specific labeling is less crucial than the overall support area.
Key Levels to Watch
A break above the swing high at $63,025 would be an initial indication of starting the next upside extension. However, this hasn't occurred yet, so we remain cautious.
Summary
In summary, Bitcoin's short-term outlook remains uncertain with the potential for another low. Key support areas and Fibonacci levels will guide our expectations.
Stay cautious and watch for any significant breaks in the current structure.
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